Rates Fell a Third Straight Week to 7.18% After the Midterms: Why Buyers Still Sat Out

Rates Fell a Third Straight Week to 7.18% After the Midterms: Why Buyers Still Sat Out

I’m Austin Curtiss, a Coldwell Banker realtor here in Lancaster County. Mortgage rates fell for the third straight week, and on paper that sounds like the break buyers have been waiting for. Freddie Mac released its latest survey on Thursday, November 5, 2026, and the average 30-year fixed rate dropped to 7.18 percent, down from 7.24 percent the week before. The 15-year fixed fell to 6.57 percent, down from 6.60 percent.

Three weeks down is a real trend. The 30-year rate has now eased from 7.40 percent in mid-October to 7.32, then 7.24, and now 7.18, its lowest level in a month. Freddie Mac’s chief economist Sam Khater said rates continued their downward trajectory and improved the environment for prospective homebuyers.

Here is the part nobody expected, though. Buyers did not rush back. And that gap, between cheaper money and quiet demand, is the real story for anyone buying or selling in Lancaster County right now.

The Math: What Three Down Weeks Are Worth

Run the full three week slide against a real Lancaster County home. Realtor.com puts the county’s median sold price at $380,000 for October 2026. With 10 percent down, that is a $342,000 loan.

• At the 7.40 percent peak in mid-October, principal and interest runs about $2,368 a month.
• At 7.24 percent last week, it ran about $2,331 a month.
• At 7.18 percent this week, it runs about $2,317 a month.

That is about $51 a month less than at the peak, about $613 a year. Helpful, and I will take it, but it is not a rescue. A year ago the average rate was 6.22 percent, and that same loan ran about $2,099 a month, so today’s buyer is still paying about $218 a month more than last fall’s buyer for the same house. That year over year gap is exactly why a third straight decline has not turned into a flood of offers.

The Midterm Election Moved Bonds, Not Buyers

This week’s dip came right after the Tuesday, November 3 midterm elections, in which Democrats reclaimed control of the House and the Senate. Realtor.com reported that bond yields softened as markets digested the shift in Washington, and mortgage rates, which track the 10-year Treasury yield, followed yields down.

Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones added the caution that matters for the next few weeks. Strong hiring supports housing demand over time, but a stronger than expected jobs report can also lift bond yields and slow the pace of rate declines in the near term. In plain terms, the same good economic news that helps buyers keep their jobs can push their rate back up.

The next big date is already on the calendar. The Federal Reserve meets again December 8 and 9, and after its October hold, with two members preferring a hike, nobody should build a plan on December delivering a lower rate.

Buyers Sat Out Anyway: What the Application Numbers Say

The Mortgage Bankers Association released its survey for the week ending October 30, 2026 on November 4, and the demand picture was soft even as rates fell. Total mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent. Purchase applications decreased 2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 19 percent lower than the same week a year ago. Refinance applications rose just 0.1 percent and were 60 percent lower than a year ago.

MBA’s own average conforming 30-year rate fell to 7.30 percent from 7.37 percent, its lowest level since September. MBA chief economist Mike Fratantoni tied that drift down to the Fed’s October decision to hold off on additional rate hikes. Even at the lowest rates since September, he noted, activity is still quite slow.

National data tells the same story. Realtor.com’s October research showed pending sales down 10.5 percent year over year, new listings down 7.5 percent, and 43 percent of active listings nationally carrying a price reduction. Sellers across the country are cutting. Buyers who can afford to participate are negotiating from a stronger seat than they had in the spring.

One more number worth knowing. The adjustable-rate share of applications rose to 11.4 percent, its highest level since September 2025, because the average 5/1 ARM rate fell to 6.29 percent, a full 1.01 points below the 30-year fixed. More buyers are asking about ARMs again. That can make sense for a buyer with a short, honest time horizon in the home. It is a bad fit for a buyer who needs the fixed payment to work forever. Know which one you are before you sign up for the lower start rate.

For Buyers: Less Competition Is the Real Opportunity

The $51 a month is not your edge. The quiet is your edge.

1. Refresh your pre-approval at 7.18 percent. If yours was written at 7.40 percent, your numbers are stale. Get it reissued at this week’s rate so your offers heading toward Thanksgiving, on Thursday, November 26, are based on what you can actually carry today.

2. Negotiate like the data says you can. With purchase demand down 19 percent year over year nationally and price cuts common, a well priced home that has sat past Lancaster County’s 29 day median time on market is a candidate for a real conversation on price, a rate buydown, or closing cost help. You will not get that conversation on a fresh, well priced listing in a county Realtor.com still calls a seller’s market, so pick your targets with your eyes open.

3. Treat a lock as protection, not a prediction. If you go under contract and the payment works at 7.18 percent, talk to your lender about locking before the December 8 and 9 Fed meeting. Rates fell after an election surprise. They can rise on the next headline just as fast.

For Sellers: Lower Rates Alone Will Not Sell Your House

If three straight weeks of falling rates produced fewer purchase applications, a fourth week will not save an overpriced listing either. The October median list price here already eased to $400,525, and homes are still selling for about 100 percent of asking when they are priced to the market, at a median of 29 days.

Price to today’s payment, not to October’s hope. The buyers who are out there are payment first shoppers at 7.18 percent, and they have more price-cut listings to choose from than they have had all year. A home priced right this week can still be under contract before Thanksgiving. A home priced for a rate that does not exist yet will sit through the holidays and explain itself in January.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are mortgage rates this week in November 2026?

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, November 5, 2026 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18 percent, down from 7.24 percent the week before. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57 percent, down from 6.60 percent. It is the third straight weekly decline and the lowest reading in a month.

How much does the drop from 7.40 percent to 7.18 percent save?

On a $380,000 Lancaster County purchase with 10 percent down, a $342,000 loan at 7.18 percent runs about $2,317 a month in principal and interest, about $51 a month and about $613 a year less than at the 7.40 percent peak in mid-October. Compared to a year ago at 6.22 percent, the same loan still costs about $218 a month more.

Why did rates fall after the midterm elections?

Realtor.com reported that bond yields softened as markets digested the midterm results, in which Democrats reclaimed control of the House and the Senate, and mortgage rates followed yields down. Economists cautioned that strong jobs data could lift yields again and slow or reverse the decline.

Are buyers coming back now that rates have fallen three weeks in a row?

Not yet, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. For the week ending October 30, 2026, total applications fell 1.2 percent, purchase applications fell 2 percent and were 19 percent below the same week a year ago, and refinance applications were 60 percent below a year ago, even though MBA’s average conforming rate dropped to 7.30 percent, its lowest since September.

Should I choose a 5/1 ARM at 6.29 percent instead of a fixed rate at 7.18 percent?

It depends on your honest time horizon. The ARM share of applications just hit 11.4 percent, its highest since September 2025, because the starting rate is about a full point lower. If you are confident you will move or refinance before the rate adjusts, it is worth pricing out. If you need this payment to work for the long haul, the fixed rate is the safer tool. Run both numbers with your lender before you decide.

Let’s Talk About Your Numbers

Rates are drifting down and buyers are still selective. That combination rewards people who price and offer based on real numbers, and it punishes everyone who waits for a headline to do the work. If you are buying or selling in Lancaster County before the December Fed meeting, call or text me at (717) 406-7337 and we will run your real numbers at 7.18 percent.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released November 5, 2026. Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, week ending October 30, 2026, released November 4, 2026. Realtor.com mortgage rates coverage and October 2026 research, November 5, 2026. Realtor.com Lancaster County, PA market data, October 2026.